Friday 15 April 2011

Saturday.

UPDATE*
Hunterview ran flat, he was off the bridle a long way out and never looked like having a chance of placing let alone winning. There'll be another day for him but it'll have to be a weaker race than this. The other runners I flagged up were quite disappointing too; Lovelace found the going too quick but he will be winning a good race this year; Ouzbeck was let down by his jumping and was the last finisher in the Scottish National; Night Lily ran fairly well in the Spring Cup, raced towards the rear throughout and when produced on the outside she did pick up well without threatening the runners who were always prominent; The last runner of the day - On His Own was a WINNER at 9/2 (15/2 Advised). Howard Johnson thought he'd be a novice to follow this year and he somewhat disappointed in a good race previously but he did the business today. He'll be a second season chaser next year and the experience of this season will have done him the world of good. There is a staying chase in him again.

1 selection with a few extra fancies:

2:50A - HUNTERVIEW. Each way. 6/1.

Overturn and Mille Chief head the market as joint favourites at 4/1. I'd be more than willing to take on Overturn now back in a handicap. I'd even be inclined to have a small place lay on Donald McCain's gelding. He ran a fair 7th in the Cheltenham version of the race against the likes of Hurricane Fly and Peddlers Cross odd level weights but he has to struggle around here with 11-10 in a handicap. He was a progressive handicapper before stepping up to group class but that rise in class has seen him rapidly lose any sight of a fair handicap rating. Rated 130 when winning this race last year under similar conditions and he did go on to win the Galway hurdle off 145 but he's now rated 160 against a better class of rival. Mille Chief routed Overturn by 47 lengths in a grade 2 at Wincanton but conditions that day weren't ideal for Overturn and he can probably be forgiven that run but he had a hard race at Cheltenham and it is not certain he'll be over that. Peddlers Cross certainly wasn't at Aintree. Mille Chief didn't have such a hard race but he'll have to put up a strong weight carrying performance if he is to win this. He struggled with the pace at Cheltenham and it won't be much difference here under his 11-8 burden.

Nearby looks a possible danger off 11-3 with Chris Davies taking off his usual 7lb. He was an unexpected 3rd in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival at 66/1 and again wasn't disgraced off his current mark when 5th in a strong hurdle at Aintree. Those races were energy sapping though as he may be tired towards what is now the end of the season. Via Galilei was ahead of Nearby in that Aintree race off his current mark but on 9lb worse terms he'll struggle to hold those positions.

Hunterview however has been kept fresh since finishing a fair 12th in the County Hurdle and though on the bare form he has a bit to find with the likes of Nearby, Cockney Trucker and Via Galilei but he was bang there approaching 2 out and just failed to get up the Cheltenham hill as he always does. He's much more at home on an easy track like this. He would ideally like a bit of cut in the ground he has gone well on good ground and he shouldn't be up against it. He is 2lb out of the handicap here but off 10-4 with the exciting Connor O'Farrell claiming 5lb he looks well weighted off 138 (effectively 133) to take a big hand in this.

My other fancies for the day come in a few more of the better races over the cards but I won't be backing them:

3:15L - Lovelace. 13/2.
3:25A - Ouzbeck. Each way. 16/1.
3:45N - Night Lily. Each way. 18/1.
UPDATE*
5:05A - On His Own. 15/2. WINNER

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