Saturday 16 April 2011

No Selections.

UPDATE*
No blog selections today so no loss or gain. The 2 I flagged up as chances though; Spin was the selection in the second listed race but she was never given any chance. Even hours before the off. She was available at 11/2 last night but as soon as this morning came and the money started to come Spin went from 11/2 out to 12/1 within a couple of hours. She was clearly a pacemaker for Gemstone who was sent off at 7/2. Spin went off like a scolded cat at a lightning pace, she went 10-12 lengths clear early and paddled her way across the line in last place. The eventual winner was Jessie Harrington's Siren's Song, a once raced horse who finished second in a maiden but was clealy thought good enough to win a listed race on her second start. It gives a good boost to the form of comfortable scorer Mesariya. John Oxx's filly is currently trading at 25/1 for the Oaks at Epsom in June.

The other flagged up runner was Raining Horse. James Ewart said he's a well-handicapped good ground horse that needs a galloping track. Therefore Wetherby should have suited but Raining Horse was an early faller. The handicap mark won't change and there will hopefully be another day for him. He was backed from the 8/1 I advised into as short as 9/2 when the on-course bookmakers put up their prices.

No blog selections today.

There are no races that really interest me enough to have a bet. The best races of the day are probably the two flat listed races in Ireland at Navan, the first of which is at 4:05 and it gives classy performer Fame and Glory a good chance to have a racecourse workout and reach peak fitness before another group campaign. He's trading around 2/5 right now which is no value at all. He has to give away 7lb all round which should be no problem but he was turned over at those same odds on his seasonal debut last year, the winner that day went on to win a group 3 though and it's tough to see any of these being of that calibre.

The second is a fillies listed event at 4:35. Aidan O'Brien is 3 strong; Gemstone, already a listed winner and the choice of what seems to do stable jockey Colm O'Donoghue; Why, Joseph O'Brien's ride and lastly SPIN, the ride of Seamie Heffernan and the one I see as the value in the race. The other runners worth noting are favourite Kirinda and Siren's Song.

Kirinda is a worthy favourite. A once raced winner, an impressive one at that. He travelled well and quickened smartly. The second horse that day is an O'Brien horse too, Empowering. Empowering clearly trained on over the winter as she ran out a decent winner of a group 3 on her reapperance boosting the form of John Oxx's Kirinda. The step up in trip will suit this Tiger Hill filly who is having her first start on turf. She's bred to train on from 2 to 3 years and if she has she should be difficult to beat, especially as Oxx's horses look well ahead at the start of the flat season but at 2/1 in what appears to be fairly competitive race she is worth swerving for value purposes.

Some tactics will be involved in this race as both Gemstone and Spin have gone from the front in the past and both hailing from the O'Brien yard it's unlikely they'll take each other on. I'd hope Spin can take the lead as her better form came from the front and I feel she needs to lead if she is to be winning this. She gave 5lb to Luxurious when winning on her second start by 4 1/2 lengths in impressive style. Luxurious went on to be beaten by 4 lengths by Gemstone later off level weights to it would appear that with a line through Luxurious Spin holds Gemstone. If you look through the form lines of Banimpire you'd come to the same conclusion. Banimpire was beaten 5 1/4 lengths by Spin in that same race, she went on to win a group 3 on her latest start which boosts the form but it also boosts the form of Gemstone who beat her by just a neck on the same terms as Spin beat her.

Spin was later sent off at 4/5 favourite in a group 3 race eventually won by Chrysanthemum. Spin didn't get to the lead that day and it looked as if something was definitely wrong. She was all but pulled up out the back of field and was the last to pass the post. I'd forget that run as it wasn't her at all. She comes back here fresh, being out of Galileo (as are both Gemstone and Why) she will be suited by the step up in trip, the yeilding ground is now problem either. Gemstone is currently priced up at around 10/3 whereas Spin is on the 11/2 mark. That seems as if it's an each way bet to nothing in my eyes and though I won't be a player I do see that as potential value.

Value in this race is SPIN 11/2. Each way.

Another to watch out for:
4:10W - Raining Horse. 8/1. Fell early.
He's a well-handicapped good ground horse who needs a galloping track. Wetherby tomorrow should be perfect.

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